Is the H1N1 virus story the most worrying news this year or overblown hype? Probably both. News reports this evening seem to have been playing down thge scare, but that may be a bit premature. What for me gives it perspective is to set the danger in the light of existing pandemics in the developing world.
There were stories in two journals that passed my eyes on this today, and undoubtedly many more. The first was in the Church Times: a news story.
Poorer countries may struggle to obtain swine-flu anti-virals. This kicked off:
FEARS are being voiced that poorer countries would be the losers in
a global flu pandemic. Developing countries may struggle for access to
anti-viral drugs because wealthy nations had advance-purchase
agreements and other deals in place, campaigners warned this week.
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
called the outbreak of swine flu, which began in Mexico City, “a test
for global solidarity”, and said in a statement that preparedness
levels in middle- and lower-income countries were low. The UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, said on Monday: “Poorer
nations are especially vulnerable. . . We must ensure that they are
not hit disproportionately hard by a potential health crisis.”
There is also a leader article:
World specialises in diseases of the rich:
... The feeling of reassurance that this prompts is tempered, though, by
the knowledge that such a response is possible only in the wealthier
nations. The inference drawn from the lack of fatalities in developed
nations so far is that this variety of swine flu is relatively mild,
and responds well to treatment. This must be contrasted with the number
of deaths attributed to the disease in Mexico. Were the epidemic to
spread to other countries with smaller public-health budgets even than
Mexico’s, the world would be facing a much greater challenge. ....
It continues on to compare the response to ongoing pandemics like malaria and TB. This is a theme in Time:
In the Developing World, Swine Flu Elicits Shrugs, Not Panic:
If the fast spread of swine flu suggests the world is small, the global
response to the epidemic reminds us that in many ways it's still light
years apart. Swine flu has been making headlines in the Western world,
but in places like India and Africa, where "pandemic" is just another
part of the daily vocabulary, no one has so much as stifled a sneeze.
In Africa, malaria kills more than 3,000 children a day; in South
Africa, HIV/AIDS has taken 2.8 million people and infected 5.3 million
more. Every day in India, 1,000 people succumb to tuberculosis. Those
are just the big diseases. According to the United Nations, a recent
cholera outbreak killed nearly 4,000 Zimbabweans and infected 80,000,
while in India diarrheal diseases kill an estimated 600,000 children
under 5 every year. ....
And returning to the relative vulnerability of the developing world, I found this sobering:
.... The problem is, if and when the flu does take root in the developing
world, countries' lack of preparation could be devastating to their
populations — especially those that are already so ravaged by endemic
disease. The 1918 flu pandemic, for example, was estimated to have
killed some 17 million Indians.
This is challenging.